{"id":910,"date":"2013-09-06T14:57:40","date_gmt":"2013-09-06T09:27:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/saravanan.org\/?p=910"},"modified":"2018-07-29T15:13:58","modified_gmt":"2018-07-29T09:43:58","slug":"google-car","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/google-car\/","title":{"rendered":"Google Car will be Life Changing"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a><\/p>\n Technology progresses in geometric speed. \u00a0With every passing day, technological breakthroughs keep arriving faster. \u00a0What more, each change has a much bigger impact than the previous change. \u00a0Ray Kurzweil<\/a> predicts that at this rate, technology would’ve progressed sufficiently for man to merge with machines. \u00a0He has named this incident the “technological singularity<\/a>“. \u00a0Because our brains are not equipped to perceive exponential curve, we find it extremely difficult to wrap it around the accelerating power of technology (TED video)<\/a>.<\/p>\n Google Car<\/a> is a strong reminder to the skeptics that rate and magnitude of technological changes do accelerate. \u00a0Though Google Car per se is of only peripheral interest to this blog, let us take a closer look at it to help us comprehend the speeding up of technological changes.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Born out of a 2005 DARPA challenge tackled jointly by Stanford and Google, Google’s driverless car (video)<\/a>\u00a0pet project has taken a life of its own: The cars have driven more than 500,000km\u00a0\u00a0accident and driver free, three states of US have permitted plying these cars on their roads and many more states and countries are to follow suit. \u00a0What looks like a pet project of a billionaire pair and a bunch of geeks is anything but a toy. \u00a0This innovation is about to make big changes to the way we live, and the change is going to happen much more quickly than we can imagine.<\/p>\n The most emotionally appealing advantage from an self-driving car technology is this: 90% of the traffic accidents are caused by human error! \u00a0In the US alone, Google expects that its driverless technology will save 30,000 lives an year, avoid additional 2 million injuries and reduce accident related expenses by at least $400 billion.<\/p>\n Because driverless cars will be networked and exchange traffic information, drive with a much lesser physical clearance from each other, avoid collisions more effectively, etc., driverless cars can run faster, more cars can be accommodated in the given road space and they effortlessly select most optimal routes. \u00a0Hence, driverless cars will substantially reduce traffic jam and reduce commute time, to 90% by some rough estimates. \u00a0A 2012 study<\/a> estimates that traffic congestion cost about $100b in US alone!<\/p>\n A car is one of the largest personal expenditure met today, still a car sits underutilized for most of the day. \u00a0This is with driverless cars. \u00a0In the era of driverless vehicles, most of us will seek to reduce under-utilization of assets by using common resources. \u00a0These resources will be operated by businesses that appear like cab companies. \u00a0The will have cars parked all over the city, in designated locations. \u00a0People hail them electronically, hop in and hop off. \u00a0Because the human driver is eliminated, driverless taxi service will be available at just a fraction of the cost we pay our cabs now (which in itself is much smaller than what we usually pay to self-owned car). \u00a0If the trend catches up, car pooling will automatically evolve out of this and the cost of using a car will sharply plummet. \u00a0Along with this, the number of cars will come down too.\u00a0 By an optimistic estimate, driverless cars may reduce the total number of cars on the road by as much as 90%!<\/p>\n With 90% of the cars, traffic jams, commute time and traffic accidents all will further reduce!<\/p>\n Driverless cars will make professional drivers obsolete. \u00a0US is already talking about truck drivers being eliminated over the next few years. \u00a0The trend will continue and accelerate. \u00a0Along with drivers, driving schools will eventually become redundant too.<\/p>\n With the cars being controlled and guided by pre-programmed rules, traffic violations will vanish. \u00a0With that traffic policing will shrink and take new roles.<\/p>\n Substantially reduced accidents will eventually put emergency medical services out of business. \u00a0Along with that, revenue of car insurance companies, and the companies that offer road accident covers, will shrink.<\/p>\n With the utilization of the cars increasing from the present levels, need for parking space and facilities will reduce. \u00a0With substantial reduction in the number of cars, and traffic snarls, construction of new roads will slow down and consumption of fuel plummet (on the other hand, if we discover cheaper sources of energy, car traffic on the highways will increase). \u00a0With better utilization of resources, cost of using a car per mile will plummet.<\/p>\n With number of cars reducing (after an initial hike owing to people converting to driverless), many car companies will go out of business.<\/p>\n Cab companies will flourish, but only if they rediscover themselves ground up. \u00a0With no driver inside a car, in-car entertainment will take new dimensions. \u00a0We will see the birth of a new vertical called ‘car-apps’ and the app makers coming up with several innovative solutions that we haven’t even felt the need for today. \u00a0Google, of course, is expected to share the driverless OS (like it shared the Android OS of the mobile phones) and build another mammoth revenue stream out of it.<\/span><\/p>\n So much for a pet project. \u00a0The funniest thing is, the technological innovations that gave us driverless cars is trivial comparing with, say, coming up with an intelligent search engine like Google (we easily forget that what a fine piece of peerless technology the Google search is).<\/p>\n How soon<\/span><\/p>\n In 2008, self driving cars could drive two blocks of closed loop at 40kmph. \u00a0By 2012, driverless cars have already driven 500,000km \u00a0in real life traffic. \u00a0With that kind of driving experience, Google must have pretty much figured out the driving algorithm.<\/p>\n A driverless car must have four additional feature<\/p>\n As of today, the cost of the sensors runs into hundreds of thousands of dollars and they need to go through further miniaturization. \u00a0This is the only piece of technology that is keeping the driverless car from becoming a mass market product. \u00a0There is nothing fundamentally revolutionary about any of the technologies that make driverless cars possible.<\/p>\n If we take a closer look at the sensors, we will realize that<\/p>\n With time, these sensors will cost just a little more than a microwave oven. \u00a0We shouldn’t be surprised if inexpensive driverless cars become available even before all the countries in the world have permissions in place for plying a driverless car! \u00a0In less than three years, driverless cars will become common scene in select places on the planet. \u00a0In about 10 years, driverless cars will be a common thing anywhere in the world. \u00a0That should convince the skeptics that the\u00a0Singularity is Near (book)<\/a>!<\/p>\n Note 1: Funny, the Google Chrome browser I am using to write this article keeps reminding me that “driverless” is not a valid word<\/p>\n Note 2: This post is largely based on the book Driverless Cars: Trillions are up for Grabs<\/a><\/p>\n90% less accidents<\/h3>\n
Save commute time<\/h3>\n
Less Cars on the Road<\/h3>\n
What changes will happen<\/h3>\n
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