{"id":1011,"date":"2014-05-15T08:21:16","date_gmt":"2014-05-15T02:51:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/saravanan.org\/?p=1011"},"modified":"2018-07-29T15:05:25","modified_gmt":"2018-07-29T09:35:25","slug":"exponential-technology","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/exponential-technology\/","title":{"rendered":"Exponential Technology"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/ExponentialTechnology.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1015\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/ExponentialTechnology.jpg\" alt=\"Exponential Technology\" width=\"600\" height=\"229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/ExponentialTechnology.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/ExponentialTechnology-300x114.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This 5 post series addresses as to how\u00a0&#8220;we are facing exponential threats from resource crunch and environmental degradation\u00a0and that in response, we are inventing a new idea age&#8221;.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a style=\"color: #ac0404;\" href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/exponential-threats\/\">Exponential Threats<\/a>\u00a0identifies\u00a0the\u00a0exponentially growing\u00a0threats we are presently facing<\/li>\n<li>This post,\u00a0<a style=\"color: #ac0404;\" href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/exponential-technology\/\">Exponential Technology<\/a>, argues that our exponentially growing technology, our best ally, is not sufficient to tackle\u00a0these threats. To do that, unprecedented level of human ingenuity should\u00a0come into play.<\/li>\n<li>In\u00a0<a style=\"color: #ac0404;\" href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/origin-ideas\/\">Origin of Ideas<\/a>, we\u00a0discuss\u00a0the\u00a0source of human ingenuity, both inside an individual&#8217;s head and across the\u00a0society.<\/li>\n<li>In\u00a0<a style=\"color: #ac0404;\" href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/age-creativity\/\">Age of Creativity<\/a>, we address as\u00a0to\u00a0why we have reasons to believe that we are entering\u00a0an era of unprecedented global creativity.<\/li>\n<li>In the last\u00a0post,\u00a0we will\u00a0address as to\u00a0how you can prepare for the coming\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/idea-age-is-here-how-can-you-get-yourself-ready\/\">Idea Age<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h3>Exponential Technology<\/h3>\n<p>One ray of hope against this exponential threat is one proven exponentially growing\u00a0tool available with us:\u00a0Our technology, at least the Information Technology. A group of people are such staunch believers in the power of exponential technology that they even predict that human beings would demat (de-materialize, become digital) by 2045! <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1018\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/TechnologyAndTranshumans.jpg\" alt=\"Technology and Transhumans\" width=\"600\" height=\"282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/TechnologyAndTranshumans.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/TechnologyAndTranshumans-300x141.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/> In a world where human beings are demated (i.e. our minds are ported into machine), we\u00a0don&#8217;t need agriculture, we don&#8217;t need cooking, we don&#8217;t need transportation (we will travel on electrons), we don&#8217;t need to die, we don&#8217;t need to have children, we all can have zillion clones, each one of them living inside a $1000 computer! The\u00a0world inhabited by demat human beings will use less resources than anyone in 20th century could have imagined. This merger of man with machine was named the\u00a0Technological Singularity (or, simply, Singularity) by the man who predicted it. It is, of course, so loony and so outlandish an idea no on in their\u00a0right mind would even dare mentioning it in a civil conversation. Only problem is that this idea has been put forward by a no-nonsense person, backed by solid data with mind boggling predictive power.<\/p>\n<h3>Exponential Intelligence<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ray_Kurzweil\">Ray Kurzweil<\/a>, the proponent of Technological Singularity,\u00a0took 15 different prominent lists, containing major intelligence events in the history of planet earth and plotted it on a\u00a0log-log graph sheet. Here is what he got: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page17.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1020 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/MajorIntelligenceEvents.jpg\" alt=\"Major Intelligence Events\" width=\"600\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/MajorIntelligenceEvents.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/MajorIntelligenceEvents-300x192.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a> Kurzweil showed (see his book <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/B000QCSA7C\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Singularity is Near<\/a>) that the exponential growht\u00a0of information technology during later past of 20th century, attributed to Moore&#8217;s Law, is merely a part of a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page20.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">larger trend<\/a> that has been unfolding from the formation of Milkey Way Galaxy! The trend is so reliable and predictable that Kurzweil proposed that it could be safely extrapolated into the future. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page70.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1022 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/KurzweilsPrediction.jpg\" alt=\"Kurzweil's Prediction\" width=\"600\" height=\"454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/KurzweilsPrediction.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/KurzweilsPrediction-300x227.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a> By extrapolating the trend, he showed that by 2013, our super computers would have enough\u00a0processing power to enable human brain&#8217;s functional simulation<\/p>\n<pre>PS: Incidentally, in 2013, Kurzweil took up a job with Google and he now\u00a0heads a project to build the human brain in a machine. In this 2<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/ray_kurzweil_get_ready_for_hybrid_thinking\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">014 TED talk<\/a>, he discusses as to how intelligent machines that are capable of reading the entire internet will be here in less than 10 years.<\/pre>\n<p>He also showed that by 2025, the super-computers will have enough processing power to enable <a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page71.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">neural simulation of human brain<\/a>! He went on to predict\u00a0that by 2045, $1,000 would buy enough processing power to equate all the 10 billion human brains\u00a0alive that year. By 2045, Kurzweil speculates, we will have the capabilities to port human brain into intelligent machines! However, there is a leap of faith that Kurzweil fails to address adequately. For example, by 2014, $1,000 can already buy more processing power than what is in a mouse brain.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>But then, were are the cyborg mice?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While Kurzweil had provided wonderful argument to establish the predictable growth of computing power, he failed to show convincingly as to how the increase in processing power would result in augmentation of intelligence. Though, he provided some indirect evidences to\u00a0his argument. Kurzweil showed that even stuff that doesn&#8217;t seem to be directly related to information technology explosion seem to follow the exponential curve.<\/p>\n<h5>Example 1: Exponential increase of private manufacturing in USA<\/h5>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page101.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1023\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/PrivateManufacturing.jpg\" alt=\"Private Manufacturing\" width=\"600\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/PrivateManufacturing.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/PrivateManufacturing-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a> \u00a0 Example 2: Per-capita GDP of USA <a href=\"http:\/\/www.singularity.com\/charts\/page99.html\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1024\" src=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/USPerCapitaGDP.jpg\" alt=\"US PerCapita GDP\" width=\"600\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/USPerCapitaGDP.jpg 600w, https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/USPerCapitaGDP-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a> In other words, Ray Kurzweil showed that technology grows exponentially, that intelligence grows exponentially and that wealth creation happens exponentially. He failed to adequately explain the anomaly between the humongous processing power we have today and primitive\u00a0state of current intelligent machines.<\/p>\n<h3>Idea Explosion<\/h3>\n<p>A thinker, author, journalist, politician\u00a0and ex-banker called <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Matt_Ridley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Ridley<\/a> came up with a plausible explanation for the puzzle that Kurzweil left unanswered. Unlike the data driven argument put across by Kurweil, Ridley&#8217;s explanation was just another leap of faith. Though, he made an\u00a0elaborate anecdotal evidences and couched his argument in it. As we will see in the sequel to this post, Ridley argued that human ingenuity\u00a0would\u00a0rise to the\u00a0occasion and\u00a0save the day.<\/p>\n<pre>REFERENCES:\r\n- This post is sequel to <a href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/idea-age-part-1-exponential-threats\/\">Idea Age is Here: Part 1, Exponential Threat<\/a>\u00a0\r\n- Next post in this series is <a href=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/origin-ideas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Origin of Ideas<\/a>\r\n- All the posts in this series are based on the presentation <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/SaravananBalakrishnan\/idea-age-is-here\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Idea Age is Here<\/a> \r\n- In this <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TED video<\/a> recorded in 2005, Ray Kurzweil explains the 'impending' Technological Singularity<\/pre>\n<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-flex-start shariff-widget-align-flex-start\" style=\"display:none\" data-services=\"facebook%7Cpinterest%7Creddit\" data-url=\"https%3A%2F%2Fsaravanan.org%2Fexponential-technology%2F\" data-timestamp=\"1532876725\" data-hidezero=\"1\" data-backendurl=\"https:\/\/saravanan.org\/wp-json\/shariff\/v1\/share_counts?\"><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-grey orientation-horizontal buttonsize-small\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook\" style=\"background-color:#d3d3d3\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fsaravanan.org%2Fexponential-technology%2F\" title=\"Share on Facebook\" aria-label=\"Share on Facebook\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; 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